Rules and formulas
Windows, the house's price formula, limits, settlement, and how each kind of position pays.
Windows
| Assets | BTC, ETH, SOL, ZEC, XRP, DOGE |
| Lengths | 1m, 2m, 5m, 15m, 1h, 4h, 1d |
| Series | 2m and 5m run two series each, one minute and three minutes apart; the rest run one |
| Entry | Until 30 seconds before the close; after that, positions ride to settlement |
A Window opens at its start and closes at its end. Before it opens, both sides are priced at 0.5 (pays about 1.90×), since nobody knows the opening price yet. Once it opens, it trades as soon as two of its three exchanges have committed their opening minute; the Line is the median of those opening prints.
Each asset is printed by three exchanges: Coinbase, Kraken and Bitstamp (for ZEC: Coinbase, Kraken and Gemini). A print is the close of that exchange's 1-minute candle ending at the moment in question.
The price
The house prices every Window from one public formula, on the same price stream the chart draws:
P(Up) = Φ( ln(S / O) / (σ · √(max(τ, 5 s) / 1 year)) )
P(Down) = 1 − P(Up)- S is the live price, O the Line, τ the time to the close, Φ the standard normal distribution.
- σ is each asset's annualised volatility from 1-minute log returns over the last 300 minutes (from the first voting exchange), clamped to 20 %–250 % and published signed every minute.
- Ask = P plus a half-spread of 2.5 points; bid = P minus 2.5 points. A side is sold only while its ask is at most 98 and bought back only while its bid is at least 2; outside that it's refused, never clamped.
- Pays × = 1 ÷ ask. There is no fee beyond the spread.
- A payout is stake ÷ ask, rounded down to the smallest chip (0.00001); a close pays payout × bid, rounded down the same way.
The house refuses to quote when its price stream has been silent for more than 3 seconds or an asset's last tick is older than 15 seconds, and it ignores any tick stamped in the future.
Slippage. Your order carries the most you'll pay: the quote plus your tolerance (2 % by default; 0.5, 1, 2 or 5 %) plus a cushion of 1 point. A worse ask is refused as Price moved.
Limits
| Testnet | Mainnet | |
|---|---|---|
| Stake per trade | 0.001 to 1 | 0.001 to 0.05 |
| Most the house pays on one Window side | 10 | 0.5 |
| Most one parlay pays | 5 | 0.2 |
| Most one band pays | 5 | 0.2 |
The side limit counts a Window side's open payout in quarters of the limit, rounded up, so a side can fill to between three quarters and all of it.
Settlement
The operator's minute work runs 7 seconds into each minute. A Window settles at the first one after its close once all three exchanges have committed their closing minute, or, if one is late, after a 10-minute grace without it.
- Each exchange votes Up if its closing print is above its opening print, Down if below, and casts no vote if either print is missing or they're equal.
- Two votes of three decide. Anything else refunds every position its stake, as does a Window that never got its Line.
- Prices are compared as exact decimals, never rounded.
Positions
Up / Down. Pays its payout if its side wins, its stake on a refund, nothing otherwise. Close or reduce it at the bid while the Window trades. A reduce sells a share of the payout (rounded down to the chip) for the same share of the stake; if less than one chip would remain, it closes the whole position.
Exits. An Up or Down position can carry a trailing stop (0.1 % to 10 % behind the best price since you armed it), a stop-loss price and a take-profit bid. The mint watches them, not your device, at least once a second, so they fire with your tab closed; they act only while the Window trades, and a position still armed at the close is redeemed for you at settlement.
Parlays. Two or three Up/Down legs on different Windows, each with at least 30 seconds of entry left. The combined price is the product of the legs' asks (when two legs close at the same moment, at least half the lower ask, since they move together), refused under 1 %. Every leg must win; a lost leg loses it all; a refunded leg drops out and the rest are re-priced; if every leg is refunded, the stake comes back. A parlay can't be sold back.
Bands (the Range and Moonshot games). A band has a lower edge, an upper edge, or both, and a side: inside or outside. P(inside) = P(close above the lower edge) − P(close above the upper edge), priced and limited like Up/Down, on the live price before and after the open. It settles on two of three closing prints falling inside (edges included) or outside. Bands can be closed and reduced at the bid; they carry no exits. Range's presets are ±$15, ±$30 and ±$55 on BTC over 5 minutes, scaled by the square root of time and by price; Moonshot solves the edge so the ask is 1 ÷ your reach (×2, ×3, ×5, ×10 or ×25).
Getting paid
A settled position is redeemed for fresh chips, blind-signed like your deposit's. With the app open this happens on its own shortly after settlement; a position armed with an exit is redeemed by the mint at settlement and its chips wait for your device to collect them.